Goldman Sachs: Seven‑year LNG supply wave likely to outpace demand, raising European storage risk
- Goldman says a seven‑year "largest ever" LNG supply wave begins in 2025, with 2025 output about 431 mtpa.
- Goldman forecasts 2025–2030 LNG supply growth of roughly +193 mtpa, outpacing Asia demand growth (~+144 mtpa).
- Goldman warns this imbalance will cause a prolonged bearish gas cycle and raise European storage congestion risk by 2028–29.
Dart says seven‑year LNG supply wave is unfolding
Main Topic — Supply surge forces reappraisal of gas balances, storage risk
Goldman Sachs’ head of Global Commodities Research Samantha Dart reiterates that a seven‑year “largest ever” liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply wave is on track, with 2025 serving as “year one.” Dart tells clients Goldman still sees global LNG supply expanding sharply over 2025–2030, with realized 2025 output at about 431 mtpa, only marginally below the bank’s prior 433 mtpa estimate, as faster U.S. ramp‑ups offset underperformance elsewhere.
The research details that U.S. liquefaction capacity is ramping fastest and leads the supply wave, while some producers such as Algeria and Indonesia show structural misses as domestic demand grows. Goldman now models incremental supply losses initially totaling about −1 mtpa and building to −3 mtpa across 2028–2030. Delays to export starts in the U.S., Canada, Congo and Australia push global supply below prior expectations into early 2026, but the bank expects most of the shortfall to be recovered by the fourth quarter of 2026.
On balance, Goldman projects 2025–2030 global LNG supply growth of roughly +193 mtpa, outpacing Asia demand growth of about +144 mtpa even after an assumed demand response to lower prices (including more than 40 mtpa of Chinese demand flexibility). That imbalance, the note warns, drives a lengthy bearish cycle for European (TTF) and Asian (JKM) gas markets and increases the risk of European storage congestion by 2028–29, with the implied short‑term balancing mechanism being temporary, price‑driven curtailment of U.S. exports. Goldman also notes nearly all projects on its through‑2029 supply list have reached final investment decision.
Other relevant developments
Goldman analysts Scott Feiler and Eric Mihelc report that U.S. consumer activity appears resilient heading into spring, with January spending trends holding up across retailers and payments data. They cite stronger comp metrics at major merchants and a rise in University of Michigan consumer sentiment to a six‑month high, driven largely by higher‑income households.
Feiler and Mihelc say recent sharp market moves look technical rather than reflective of broad consumer weakness, with momentum trades and pockets of technology and media setting daily price dynamics. They expect continued strength in apparel and beauty revenues even as markets digest positioning, capex surprises and commodity shifts.
